DEBUNKED – Rookie Wide Receiver is Not Missing Piece to Reach Super Bowl
Brian Gutekunst received a lot of criticism this past year by not drafting a wide receiver early on in the draft. The familiar theme of dejected Packers fans seemed to be that they were one playmaker away from reaching the Super Bowl and that we could have found one in the draft. This made me start to wonder about the impact that receivers have on pushing a team over the top. The results are not good for outraged Packers fans
Methodology & Data Table
To do my research, I looked at every wide receiver drafted from 2010-2019. I then looked to see how many of them reached the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them (i.e. Sammy Watkins wouldn’t count because he made the Super Bowl with the Chiefs but was drafted by the Bills). Below are the data points I used. Most are objective but one (Impact) is subjective that I used to present my analysis. That results is based off of a player’s regular season, playoff, and Super Bowl stats for a given year.
Data Points
| Player | Name |
| Draft Year | Year they were drafted |
| Round | Round they were selected |
| Pick | Overall pick number |
| Team | Team that drafted them |
| Impact | High, Moderate, Low, Very Low, None – roster only |
| Super Bowl Year | Year(s) the team that drafted them made the Super Bowl |
| Super Bowl Result | If their team won or lost the Super Bowl that year |
| Year in League | How many years were they in the league when they reached that Super Bowl |
| Reg Targets | Regular season targets |
| Reg Receptions | Regular season receptions |
| Reg Yards | Regular season yards |
| Reg TD | Regular season touchdowns |
| Playoff Target | Playoff targets |
| Playoff Receptions | Playoff receptions |
| Playoff Yards | Playoff yards |
| Playoff TD | Playoff touchdowns |
| Super Bowl Targets | Super Bowl targets |
| Super Bowl Receptions | Super Bowl receptions |
| Super Bowl Yards | Super Bowl yards |
| Super Bowl TD | Super Bowl touchdowns |
| Player | Draft Year | Round | Pick | Team | Impact | Super Bowl Year | Super Bowl Result | Year in League | Reg Targets | Reg Receptions | Reg Yards | Reg TD | Playoff Target | Playoff Receptions | Playoff Yards | Playoff TD | Super Bowl Targets | Super Bowl Receptions | Super Bowl Yards | Super Bowl TD |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 1 | 22 | DEN | 4 – High | 2013 | Loss | 4 | 142 | 92 | 1430 | 14 | 38 | 28 | 306 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 118 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 1 | 22 | DEN | 4 – High | 2015 | Win | 6 | 177 | 105 | 1304 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2010 | 2 | 60 | SEA | 3 – Moderate | 2013 | Win | 4 | 99 | 64 | 898 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 61 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2010 | 3 | 82 | PIT | 3 – Moderate | 2010 | Loss | 1 | 50 | 28 | 376 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 91 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2010 | 3 | 87 | DEN | 4 – High | 2013 | Loss | 4 | 136 | 87 | 1288 | 11 | 18 | 8 | 111 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Reed | 2010 | 5 | 156 | BAL | 1 – Very Low | 2012 | Win | 3 | 6 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2010 | 6 | 195 | PIT | 2 – Low | 2010 | Loss | 1 | 19 | 16 | 167 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2011 | 1 | 6 | ATL | 4 – High | 2016 | Loss | 6 | 129 | 83 | 1409 | 6 | 24 | 19 | 334 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 87 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2011 | 2 | 58 | BAL | 3 – Moderate | 2012 | Win | 2 | 110 | 49 | 855 | 8 | 25 | 11 | 233 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2011 | 3 | 83 | NYG | 1 – Very Low | 2011 | Win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 2011 | 4 | 123 | BAL | 1 – Very Low | 2012 | Win | 2 | 17 | 7 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 2012 | 1 | 30 | SFO | 1 – Very Low | 2012 | Loss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Streeter | 2012 | 6 | 198 | BAL | 0 – None (roster only) | 2012 | Win | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Dobson | 2013 | 2 | 59 | NWE | 1 – Very Low | 2014 | Win | 2 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Boyce | 2013 | 4 | 102 | NWE | 0 – None (roster only) | 2014 | Win | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2014 | 1 | 28 | CAR | 0 – None (roster only) | 2015 | Loss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2014 | 2 | 45 | SEA | 1 – Very Low | 2014 | Loss | 1 | 44 | 29 | 271 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2014 | 2 | 56 | DEN | 1 – Very Low | 2015 | Win | 2 | 11 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 2014 | 4 | 123 | SEA | 1 – Very Low | 2014 | Loss | 1 | 10 | 9 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2015 | 1 | 20 | PHI | 3 – Moderate | 2017 | Win | 3 | 95 | 62 | 768 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2015 | 4 | 107 | ATL | 2 – Low | 2016 | Loss | 2 | 31 | 21 | 203 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 2016 | 4 | 112 | NWE | 3 – Moderate | 2016 | Win | 1 | 48 | 32 | 401 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2016 | 4 | 126 | KAN | 2 – Low | 2019 | Win | 4 | 55 | 32 | 449 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | 5 | 165 | KAN | 4 – High | 2019 | Win | 4 | 89 | 58 | 860 | 7 | 27 | 17 | 213 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2016 | 6 | 206 | LAR | 0 – None (roster only) | 2018 | Loss | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 3 | 69 | LAR | 3 – Moderate | 2018 | Loss | 2 | 55 | 40 | 566 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2017 | 4 | 117 | LAR | 3 – Moderate | 2018 | Loss | 2 | 53 | 29 | 402 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 121 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2017 | 4 | 118 | PHI | 2 – Low | 2017 | Win | 1 | 22 | 16 | 226 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelton Gibson | 2017 | 5 | 166 | PHI | 1 – Very Low | 2017 | Win | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2017 | 5 | 177 | SFO | 0 – None (roster only) | 2019 | Loss | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2018 | 2 | 44 | SFO | 2 – Low | 2019 | Loss | 2 | 24 | 11 | 109 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie James | 2018 | 7 | 240 | SFO | 2 – Low | 2019 | Loss | 2 | 10 | 6 | 165 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2019 | 2 | 36 | SFO | 4 – High | 2019 | Loss | 1 | 81 | 57 | 802 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 127 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2019 | 2 | 56 | KAN | 4 – High | 2019 | Win | 1 | 41 | 26 | 538 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurd | 2019 | 3 | 67 | SFO | 0 – None (roster only) | 2019 | Loss | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Overview
There were 312 wide receivers drafted between 2010-2019 and only 34 of them made the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them. In fact, only one (ONE!) had two Super Bowl appearances with the team that drafted them and that was Demaryius Thomas.
To say that none of the players drafted had an impact would be incorrect. Obviously players like Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones,and Tyreek Hill were critical to their team success. There were also several players like Deebo Samuel, Mecole Hardman, Nelson Agholor, and Eric Decker, that weren’t game changers but were certainly useful in helping their team reach the Super Bowl.
There were far more misses than hits and there were 6 that provided no value at all by either being placed on injured reserve or just not appearing in games. Below is the breakdown of my impact ratings:
| High | 7 |
| Moderate | 7 |
| Low | 6 |
| Very Low | 9 |
| None – roster only | 6 |
Rookie Impact?
To address the concerns of fans that the Packers didn’t select a receiver this year’s draft, I wanted to look at the impact rookie receivers have had in the past. Below is a table of all of the receivers that made the Super Bowl in their rookie year
| Round | Pick | Player | Team | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 82 | Emmanuel Sanders | PIT | Moderate |
| 6 | 195 | Antonio Brown | PIT | Low |
| 3 | 83 | Jerrel Jernigan | NYG | Very Low |
| 1 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins | SFO | Very Low |
| 6 | 198 | Tommy Streeter | BAL | None (Roster only) |
| 2 | 45 | Paul Richardson | SEA | Very Low |
| 4 | 123 | Kevin Norwood | SEA | Very Low |
| 4 | 112 | Malcolm Mitchell | NWE | Moderate |
| 4 | 118 | Mack Hollins | PHI | Low |
| 5 | 166 | Shelton Gibson | PHI | Very Low |
| 2 | 56 | Mecole Hardman | KAN | High |
| 2 | 36 | Deebo Samuel | SFO | High |
| 3 | 67 | Jalen Hurd | SFO | None (Roster only) |
There are some big names on this list like Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown but they became stars after their rookie season. Sanders had a modest impact while Brown only had 16 receptions for 167 yards. They were hardly the reason why the Steelers made the Super Bowl. Mecole Hardman’s biggest impact was as a returner. The one player that made a big impact was Deebo Samuel with the 49ers last season. The only first round pick in the group, A.J. Jenkins, never recorded a reception.
First Round Impact?
Alot was also made of the Packers not taking a receiver in the first round. While Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Nelson Agholor were critical pieces to their team reaching the Super Bowl, they also did in years 6, 4 & 6, and 3 respectively. As mentioned above, A.J. Jenkins provided no impact nor did Kelvin Benjamin who was on injured reserve the whole 2015 season for the Panthers. I think there were nice complimentary players found in the later rounds like Eric Decker (3rd), Cooper Kupp (3rd), and Josh Reynolds (4) similar to what Marquez Valdes-Scantling is for the Packers. One could argue that the player that made the biggest impact of all is Tyreek Hill and he wasn’t drafted until round 5.
2020 Rookie Wide Receivers
That brings us to review this past draft. Justin Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons of a receiver of all time. He was also selected before the Packers had a chance to draft him. So while Jefferson has been great and Lamb and Aiyuk have been really good, Ruggs, Reagor, and Jeudy have just been ok. And unless the Cowboys beat the Giants AND the Eagles beat the Washington Football team, all five will be home for the playoffs including three (Vikings, 49ers, and Eagles) who made the playoffs last season.
How Do the Packers Receivers Compare
Here is the same chart as above, only with the Packers current receivers mixed in with this season’s stats. I did include Lazard although I know he wasn’t drafted by the Packers. It is very possible the Adams will be first in yards and touchdowns after this week’s game against the Bears and Valdes-Scantling is 11th in yards, only slightly behind where first round pick Nelson Agholor was when the Eagles went on their run in 2017 .
Final Thoughts
I am not against drafting receivers high. In fact, I love 2nd round and 3rd round picks to be used on receivers especially since the Packers had so much success with Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, and now Adams. However, expecting them to be THE missing the piece that puts a team over the top right away isn’t realistic. That’s why the focus of the draft should always be long term and not try to address and immediate need, particularly at skill positions.
